The relationship between the price and demand of alcohol, tobacco, unhealthy food, sugar-sweetened beverages, and gambling: an umbrella review of systematic reviews.

BACKGROUND: The WHO highlight alcohol, tobacco, unhealthy food, and sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes as one of the most effective policies for preventing and reducing the burden of non-communicable diseases. This umbrella review aimed to identify and summarise evidence from systematic reviews that report the relationship between price and demand or price and disease/death for alcohol, tobacco, unhealthy food, and SSBs. Given the recent recognition as gambling as a public health problem, we also included gambling. METHODS: The protocol for this umbrella review was pre-registered (PROSPERO CRD42023447429). Seven electronic databases were searched between 2000-2023. Eligible systematic reviews were those published in any country, including adults or children, and which quantitatively examined the relationship between alcohol, tobacco, gambling, unhealthy food, or SSB price/tax and demand (sales/consumption) or disease/death. Two researchers undertook screening, eligibility, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment using the ROBIS tool. RESULTS: We identified 50 reviews from 5,185 records, of which 31 reported on unhealthy food or SSBs, nine reported on tobacco, nine on alcohol, and one on multiple outcomes (alcohol, tobacco, unhealthy food, and SSBs). We did not identify any reviews on gambling. Higher prices were consistently associated with lower demand, notwithstanding variation in the size of effect across commodities or populations. Reductions in demand were large enough to be considered meaningful for policy. CONCLUSIONS: Increases in the price of alcohol, tobacco, unhealthy food, and SSBs are consistently associated with decreases in demand. Moreover, increasing taxes can be expected to increase tax revenue. There may be potential in joining up approaches to taxation across the harm-causing commodities.

The future of International Classification of Diseases coding in steatotic liver disease: An expert panel Delphi consensus statement.

BACKGROUND: Following the adoption of new nomenclature for steatotic liver disease, we aimed to build consensus on the use of International Classification of Diseases codes and recommendations for future research and advocacy. METHODS: Through a two-stage Delphi process, a core group (n = 20) reviewed draft statements and recommendations (n = 6), indicating levels of agreement. Following revisions, this process was repeated with a large expert panel (n = 243) from 73 countries. RESULTS: Consensus ranged from 88.8% to 96.9% (mean = 92.3%). CONCLUSIONS: This global consensus statement provides guidance on harmonizing the International Classification of Diseases coding for steatotic liver disease and future directions to advance the field.

Preventing liver disease with policy measures to tackle alcohol consumption and obesity: The HEPAHEALTH II study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Chronic liver disease (CLD) causes 1.8% of all deaths in Europe, many of them from liver cancer. We estimated the impact of several policy interventions in France, the Netherlands, and Romania. METHODS: We used a validated microsimulation model to assess seven different policy scenarios in 2022-2030: a minimum unit price (MUP) of alcohol of €0.70 or €1, a volumetric alcohol tax, a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax, food marketing restrictions, plus two different combinations of these policies compared against current policies (the 'inaction' scenario). RESULTS: All policies reduced the burden of CLD and liver cancer. The largest impact was observed for a MUP of €1, which by 2030 would reduce the cumulative incidence of CLD by between 7.1% to 7.3% in France, the Netherlands, and Romania compared with inaction. For liver cancer, the corresponding reductions in cumulative incidence were between 4.8% to 5.8%. Implementing a package containing a MUP of €0.70, a volumetric alcohol tax, and an SSB tax would reduce the cumulative incidence of CLD by between 4.29% to 4.71% and of liver cancer by between 3.47% to 3.95% in France, the Netherlands, and Romania. The total predicted reduction in healthcare costs by 2030 was greatest with the €1 MUP scenario, with a reduction for liver cancer costs of €8.18M and €612.49M in the Netherlands and France, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Policy measures tackling primary risk factors for CLD and liver cancer, such as the implementation of a MUP of €1 and/or a MUP of €0.70 plus SSB tax could markedly reduce the number of Europeans with CLD or liver cancer. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Policymakers must be aware that alcohol and obesity are the two leading risk factors for chronic liver disease and liver cancer in Europe and both are expected to increase in the future if no policy interventions are made. This study assessed the potential of different public health policy measures to mitigate the impact of alcohol consumption and obesity on the general population in three European countries: France, the Netherlands, and Romania. The findings support introducing a €1 minimum unit price for alcohol to reduce the burden of chronic liver disease. In addition, the study shows the importance of targeting multiple drivers of alcohol consumption and obesogenic products simultaneously via a harmonized fiscal policy framework, to complement efforts being made within health systems. These findings should encourage policymakers to introduce such policy measures across Europe to reduce the burden of liver disease. The modeling methods used in this study can assist in structuring similar modeling in other regions to expand on this study's findings.

The prevalence and clustering of alcohol consumption, gambling, smoking, and excess weight in an English adult population.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to examine the prevalence and clustering of four health risks (increasing-/higher-risk drinking, current smoking, overweight/obesity, and at-risk gambling), and to examine variation across sociodemographic groups in the English adult population. METHODS: We analysed data from the 2012, 2015, 2016, and 2018 Health Survey for England (n = 20,698). Prevalence odds ratios (POR) were calculated to examine the clustering of risks. We undertook a multinomial multilevel regression model to examine sociodemographic variation in the clustering of health risks. RESULTS: Overall, 23.8% of the adult English population had two or more co-occurring health risks. The most prevalent was increasing-/higher-risk drinking and overweight/obesity (17.2%). Alcohol consumption and smoking were strongly clustered, particularly higher-risk drinking and smoking (POR = 2.68; 95% CI = 2.31, 3.11; prevalence = 1.7%). Higher-risk drinking and at-risk gambling were also clustered (POR = 2.66; 95% CI = 1.76, 4.01), albeit with a very low prevalence (0.2%). Prevalence of multiple risks was higher among men for all risk combinations except smoking and obesity. The odds of multiple risks were highest for men and women aged 35-64 years. Unemployed men and women with lower educational qualifications had a higher odds of multiple risks. The relationship between deprivation and multiple risks depended on the definition of multiple risks, with the clearest socioeconomic gradients seen for the highest risk health behaviours. CONCLUSION: An understanding of the prevalence, clustering, and risk factors for multiple health risks can help inform effective prevention and treatment approaches and may support the design and use of multiple behaviour change interventions.

The effectiveness of alcohol label information for increasing knowledge and awareness: a rapid evidence review.

BACKGROUND: Consumers have difficulty understanding alcoholic units and low risk drinking guidelines (LRDG). Labelling may improve comprehension. The aims of this rapid evidence review were to establish the effectiveness of on-bottle labelling for (i) improving comprehension of health risks; (ii) improving comprehension of unit and/or standard drink information and/or LRDG, and (iii) reducing self-reported intentions to drink/actual drinking. METHODS: Electronic database searches were carried out (January 2008-November 2018 inclusive). Papers were included if they were: published in English; from an Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development country; an experimental/quasi-experimental design. Papers were assessed for quality using the Effective Public Health Practice Project Quality Assessment tool. Ten papers were included. Most studies were moderate quality (n = 7). RESULTS: Five themes emerged: comprehension of health risks; self-reported drinking intentions; comprehension of unit/standard drink information and/or LRDG; outcome expectancies; and label attention. Labelling can improve awareness, particularly of health harms, but is unlikely to change behaviour. Improved comprehension was greatest for labels with unit information and LRDG. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol labelling can be effective in improving people's comprehension of the health risks involved in drinking alcohol enabling them to make informed consumption decisions, and perhaps thereby provide a route to changing behaviour. Thus, effective alcohol labelling is an intervention that can be added to the broader suite of policy options. That being said, the literature reviewed here suggests that the specific format of the label matters, so careful consideration must be given to the design and placement of labels.

The Liverpool alcohol-related liver disease algorithm identifies twice as many emergency admissions compared to standard methods when applied to Hospital Episode Statistics for England.

BACKGROUND: Emergency admissions in England for alcohol-related liver disease (ArLD) have increased steadily for decades. Statistics based on administrative data typically focus on the ArLD-specific code as the primary diagnosis and are therefore at risk of excluding ArLD admissions defined by other coding combinations. AIM: To deploy the Liverpool ArLD Algorithm (LAA), which accounts for alternative coding patterns (e.g., ArLD secondary diagnosis with alcohol/liver-related primary diagnosis), to national and local datasets in the context of studying trends in ArLD admissions before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We applied the standard approach and LAA to Hospital Episode Statistics for England (2013-21). The algorithm was also deployed at 28 hospitals to discharge coding for emergency admissions during a common 7-day period in 2019 and 2020, in which eligible patient records were reviewed manually to verify the diagnosis and extract data. RESULTS: Nationally, LAA identified approximately 100% more monthly emergency admissions from 2013 to 2021 than the standard method. The annual number of ArLD-specific admissions increased by 30.4%. Of 39,667 admissions in 2020/21, only 19,949 were identified with standard approach, an estimated admission cost of £70 million in under-recorded cases. Within 28 local hospital datasets, 233 admissions were identified using the standard approach and a further 250 locally verified cases using the LAA (107% uplift). There was an 18% absolute increase in ArLD admissions in the seven-day evaluation period in 2020 versus 2019. There were no differences in disease severity or mortality, or in the proportion of admissions with decompensation of cirrhosis or alcoholic hepatitis. CONCLUSIONS: The LAA can be applied successfully to local and national datasets. It consistently identifies approximately 100% more cases than the standard coding approach. The algorithm has revealed the true extent of ArLD admissions. The pandemic has compounded a long-term rise in ArLD admissions and mortality.

Validation of the liver traffic light test as a predictive model for survival and development of liver-related events.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Liver disease mortality rates continue to rise due to late diagnosis. We need noninvasive tests to be made available in the community that can identify patients at risk from a serious liver-related event (SLE). We examine the performance of a blood test, the liver traffic light test (LTLT), with regard to its ability to predict survival and SLEs. METHODS: Using routinely gathered clinical data, sequential LTLT test results from 4854 individuals with suspected liver disease were prospectively analyzed (median follow-up 41 months). An SLE was defined as the development of cirrhosis, liver failure, ascites, or varices. Patients were graded as follows: red (high risk), amber (intermediate risk), and green (low risk). RESULTS: Overall, 565 individuals experienced an SLE (11.6%). The area under the curve (AUC) for the continuous LTLT variable was 0.87 (95% confidence interval 0.85-0.89) for prediction of an SLE and 0.81 (0.78-0.84) for mortality. When categorized into red/amber/green grades, a red LTLT result predicted an SLE with negative and positive predictive values of 0.97 and 0.29, respectively. A red LTLT score predicted mortality with negative and positive predictive values of 0.98 and 0.18, respectively. Kaplan-Meier plots demonstrated increased mortality and SLEs in the red group versus the green and amber groups (P < 0.001) and an increase in SLEs in the amber versus green group (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Here, the LTLT is further validated for the prediction of survival and SLE development. The LTLT could aid primary care risk management and referral pathways with the aim of detecting and treating liver disease earlier in the general population.

New dimensions for hospital services and early detection of disease: a Review from the Lancet Commission into liver disease in the UK.

This Review, in addressing the unacceptably high mortality of patients with liver disease admitted to acute hospitals, reinforces the need for integrated clinical services. The masterplan described is based on regional, geographically sited liver centres, each linked to four to six surrounding district general hospitals-a pattern of care similar to that successfully introduced for stroke services. The plan includes the establishment of a lead and deputy lead clinician in each acute hospital, preferably a hepatologist or gastroenterologist with a special interest in liver disease, who will have prime responsibility for organising the care of admitted patients with liver disease on a 24/7 basis. Essential for the plan is greater access to intensive care units and high-dependency units, in line with the reconfiguration of emergency care due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This Review strongly recommends full implementation of alcohol care teams in hospitals and improved working links with acute medical services. We also endorse recommendations from paediatric liver services to improve overall survival figures by diagnosing biliary atresia earlier based on stool colour charts and better caring for patients with impaired cognitive ability and developmental mental health problems. Pilot studies of earlier diagnosis have shown encouraging progress, with 5-6% of previously undiagnosed cases of severe fibrosis or cirrhosis identified through use of a portable FibroScan in primary care. Similar approaches to the detection of early asymptomatic disease are described in accounts from the devolved nations, and the potential of digital technology in improving the value of clinical consultation and screening programmes in primary care is highlighted. The striking contribution of comorbidities, particularly obesity and diabetes (with excess alcohol consumption known to be a major factor in obesity), to mortality in COVID-19 reinforces the need for fiscal and other long delayed regulatory measures to reduce the prevalence of obesity. These measures include the food sugar levy and the introduction of the minimum unit price policy to reduce alcohol consumption. Improving public health, this Review emphasises, will not only mitigate the severity of further waves of COVID-19, but is crucial to reducing the unacceptable burden from liver disease in the UK.

Can routine blood tests be modelled to detect advanced liver disease in the community: model derivation and validation using UK primary and secondary care data.

OBJECTIVES: Most patients are unaware they have liver cirrhosis until they present with a decompensating event. We therefore aimed to develop and validate an algorithm to predict advanced liver disease (AdvLD) using data widely available in primary care. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Logistic regression was performed on routinely collected blood result data from the University Hospital Southampton (UHS) information systems for 16 967 individuals who underwent an upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (2005-2016). Data were used to create a model aimed at detecting AdvLD: 'CIRRhosis Using Standard tests' (CIRRUS). Prediction of a first serious liver event (SLE) was then validated in two cohorts of 394 253 (UHS: primary and secondary care) and 183 045 individuals (Care and Health Information Exchange (CHIE): primary care). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Model creation dataset: cirrhosis or portal hypertension. Validation datasets: SLE (gastro-oesophageal varices, liver-related ascites or cirrhosis). RESULTS: In the model creation dataset, 931 SLEs were recorded (5.5%). CIRRUS detected cirrhosis or portal hypertension with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.90 (95% CI 0.88 to 0.92). Overall, 3044 (0.8%) and 1170 (0.6%) SLEs were recorded in the UHS and CHIE validation cohorts, respectively. In the UHS cohort, CIRRUS predicted a first SLE within 5 years with an AUC of 0.90 (0.89 to 0.91) continuous, 0.88 (0.87 to 0.89) categorised (crimson, red, amber, green grades); and AUC 0.84 (0.82 to 0.86) and 0.83 (0.81 to 0.85) for the CHIE cohort. In patients with a specified liver risk factor (alcohol, diabetes, viral hepatitis), a crimson/red cut-off predicted a first SLE with a sensitivity of 72%/59%, specificity 87%/93%, positive predictive value 26%/18% and negative predictive value 98%/99% for the UHS/CHIE validation cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSION: Identification of individuals at risk of AdvLD within primary care using routinely available data may provide an opportunity for earlier intervention and prevention of liver-related morbidity and mortality.

Administrative Coding in Electronic Health Care Record-Based Research of NAFLD: An Expert Panel Consensus Statement.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Electronic health record (EHR)-based research allows the capture of large amounts of data, which is necessary in NAFLD, where the risk of clinical liver outcomes is generally low. The lack of consensus on which International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes should be used as exposures and outcomes limits comparability and generalizability of results across studies. We aimed to establish consensus among a panel of experts on ICD codes that could become the reference standard and provide guidance around common methodological issues. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Researchers with an interest in EHR-based NAFLD research were invited to collectively define which administrative codes are most appropriate for documenting exposures and outcomes. We used a modified Delphi approach to reach consensus on several commonly encountered methodological challenges in the field. After two rounds of revision, a high level of agreement (>67%) was reached on all items considered. Full consensus was achieved on a comprehensive list of administrative codes to be considered for inclusion and exclusion criteria in defining exposures and outcomes in EHR-based NAFLD research. We also provide suggestions on how to approach commonly encountered methodological issues and identify areas for future research. CONCLUSIONS: This expert panel consensus statement can help harmonize and improve generalizability of EHR-based NAFLD research.

Unacceptable failures: the final report of the Lancet Commission into liver disease in the UK.

This final report of the Lancet Commission into liver disease in the UK stresses the continuing increase in burden of liver disease from excess alcohol consumption and obesity, with high levels of hospital admissions which are worsening in deprived areas. Only with comprehensive food and alcohol strategies based on fiscal and regulatory measures (including a minimum unit price for alcohol, the alcohol duty escalator, and an extension of the sugar levy on food content) can the disease burden be curtailed. Following introduction of minimum unit pricing in Scotland, alcohol sales fell by 3%, with the greatest effect on heavy drinkers of low-cost alcohol products. We also discuss the major contribution of obesity and alcohol to the ten most common cancers as well as measures outlined by the departing Chief Medical Officer to combat rising levels of obesity-the highest of any country in the west. Mortality of severely ill patients with liver disease in district general hospitals is unacceptably high, indicating the need to develop a masterplan for improving hospital care. We propose a plan based around specialist hospital centres that are linked to district general hospitals by operational delivery networks. This plan has received strong backing from the British Association for Study of the Liver and British Society of Gastroenterology, but is held up at NHS England. The value of so-called day-case care bundles to reduce high hospital readmission rates with greater care in the community is described, along with examples of locally derived schemes for the early detection of disease and, in particular, schemes to allow general practitioners to refer patients directly for elastography assessment. New funding arrangements for general practitioners will be required if these proposals are to be taken up more widely around the country. Understanding of the harm to health from lifestyle causes among the general population is low, with a poor knowledge of alcohol consumption and dietary guidelines. The Lancet Commission has serious doubts about whether the initiatives described in the Prevention Green Paper, with the onus placed on the individual based on the use of information technology and the latest in behavioural science, will be effective. We call for greater coordination between official and non-official bodies that have highlighted the unacceptable disease burden from liver disease in England in order to present a single, strong voice to the higher echelons of government.

Healthcare practitioners' experiences of an intervention to detect and treat patients with liver disease (the LOCATE intervention): a qualitative process evaluation.

OBJECTIVES: The local care and treatment of liver disease (LOCATE) intervention embedded specialist liver nurses in general practitioner (GP) practices to improve the identification of progressive liver disease, enabling earlier intervention. This current process evaluation examines GP practice staffs' perceptions of the LOCATE intervention, in order to understand any potential barriers to successful implementation in clinical practice. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: A qualitative process evaluation nested within the LOCATE feasibility trial, using semistructured interviews with practice staff from five GP surgeries in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: A purposive sample of 29 interviews with practice staff (GPs, nurses, practice managers). DATA COLLECTION: Interview transcripts were subjected to thematic analysis. FINDINGS: The intervention was found to be acceptable to practice staff and a number of barriers and facilitators to the success of the intervention were identified. However, interviews suggested that the intervention did not provide sufficient guidance for clinicians to be able to help patients make the behavioural changes needed to reduce risk factors associated with liver disease. The intervention did appear to improve clinician awareness and knowledge about liver disease, enabling GPs to feel more confident interpreting and managing liver function blood tests in order to identify the early signs of liver disease. CONCLUSIONS: This study enabled identification of potential barriers to implementation of specialist nurses in primary care to identify progressive liver disease and enable earlier intervention. The next steps are to improve the intervention to make it more feasible to implement in practice and more likely to help patients to make the behavioural changes required to prevent a major liver event. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: 13/SC/0012; Post-results. ETHICS: This study was reviewed and approved by NRES Committee South Central-Hampshire A, Bristol Research Ethics Committee Centre, level 3, block B, Whitefriars, Lewins Mead Bristol BS1 2NT.

A comparison of gender-linked population cancer risks between alcohol and tobacco: how many cigarettes are there in a bottle of wine?

BACKGROUND: In contrast to our knowledge about the number of cancers attributed to smoking, the number of cancers attributed to alcohol is poorly understood by the public. We estimate the increase in absolute risk of cancer (number of cases per 1000) attributed to moderate levels of alcohol, and compare these to the absolute risk of cancer attributed to low levels of smoking, creating a 'cigarette-equivalent of population cancer harm'. METHODS: Alcohol and tobacco attributable fractions were subtracted from lifetime general population risks of developing alcohol- and smoking-related cancers, to estimate the lifetime cancer risk in alcohol-abstaining non-smokers. This was multiplied by the relative risk of drinking ten units of alcohol or smoking ten cigarettes per week, and increasing levels of consumption. RESULTS: One bottle of wine per week is associated with an increased absolute lifetime cancer risk for non-smokers of 1.0% (men) and 1.4% (women). The overall absolute increase in cancer risk for one bottle of wine per week equals that of five (men) or ten cigarettes per week (women). Gender differences result from levels of moderate drinking leading to a 0.8% absolute risk of breast cancer in female non-smokers. CONCLUSIONS: One bottle of wine per week is associated with an increased absolute lifetime risk of alcohol-related cancers in women, driven by breast cancer, equivalent to the increased absolute cancer risk associated with ten cigarettes per week. These findings can help communicate that moderate levels of drinking are an important public health risk for women. The risks for men, equivalent to five cigarettes per week, are also of note.

Treating alcohol-related liver disease from a public health perspective.

Herein, we describe the evolving landscape of alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) including the current global burden of disease and cost to working-aged people in terms of death and disability, in addition to the larger spectrum of alcohol-related heath complications and its wider impact on society. We further review the most effective and cost-effective public health policies at both a population and individual level. Currently, abstinence is the only effective treatment for ALD, and yet because the majority of ALD remains undetected in the community abstinence is initiated too late to prevent premature death in the majority of cases. We therefore hope that this review will help inform clinicians of the "public health treatment options" for ALD to encourage engagement with policy makers and promote community-based hepatology as a speciality, expanding our patient cohort to allow early detection, and thereby a reduction in the enormous morbidity and mortality associated with this disease.